L'Italia distruggerà l'Eurozona?

Mia intervista a New Europe.  Mi dicono che la rivista con l'intervista sarà diffusa  in forma stampata a Bruxelles negli hotels, lobbisti, ambasciate ecc. Speriamo che faccia innervosire qualcuno!

 

Published 08:37 September 28, 2018

Updated 12:54 September 28, 2018

Will Italy destroy the Eurozone?

By NEOnline | IR
Ilia Roubanis

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Euro-critical discourse is mainstream in Italy. The current government is a coalition that encompasses left and right traditions of sovereigntist politics.

The economy is the epicentre of this discussion.

Until earlier this week, the Italian government held up flagship policy commitments that included more redistribution and a smaller tax burden. All that spooked markets, with sovereign bond yields doubling since May 2018. International credit rating agencies and markets are adding to the pressure. The European Commission, once again, calls for fiscal discipline.

Amid this pressure, political and profoundly economic, New Europe sought the help of an economist to understand the Italian mindset. Sergio Cesaratto (SC) is a Professor of International Economics at the University of Siena, Italy. He specialises in Monetary and Fiscal Policy of the European Monetary Union (EMU).

E' la crisi dell'eurozona una crisi di bilancia dei pagamenti? Is the Eurozone crisis a BoP crisis?

Parlatene male, ma parlatene.
Un po' di controversia internazionale - che mi aspettavo - sul mio paper su Target 2 e la crisi europea come crisi di bilancia dei pagamenti. Chi mi critica è (ops!) un MMT. Grazie al mio amico Ramanan (un noto blogger indiano) per la difesa della mia tesi, sia nei commenti a Plikington che nel suo ottimo blog Concerted action.Grazie naturalmente anche a Pilkington per l'attenzione.

CRITICHE http://fixingtheeconomists.wordpress.com/2013/08/31/can-a-country-without-a-currency-have-a-currency-crisis/
RAMANAN http://www.concertedaction.com/2013/08/31/balance-payments-crises/

Con l'occasione (e a proposito di India), il mio amico Bergamini mi segnala questa intervista di Jayati Gosh, una straordinaria economista indiana, il termine inglese "sharp" rende perfettamente l'idea. Utile e chiara sulla crisi indiana (e cinese).
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/indian-economist-jayati-ghosh-warns-of-chaos-and-violence-a-919048.html#js-article-comments-box-pager

A little of international controversy - that I expected - on my paper on Target 2 and the Eurozone crisis as a BoP crisis. The critic is (ops) an MMT. Thanks to my friend Ramanan to take my defence both in his comments and in his blog. Thanks also to Pilkington, of course, for paying attention to my paper.

I take this occasion to suggest an interview to the always sharp Jayati Gosh from Spiegel on the current troubles in India (and China).

Replica a Randall Wray - Parte 1

 Nakedkeynesianism ha appena pubblicato la prima parte della mia risposta a Wray, e a seguire inserirà la seconda. Certamente degli amici italiani le tradurranno. Buona lettura. La risposta di Wray è qui http://www.economonitor.com/lrwray/2012/08/29/minsky-and-mmt-in-the-news/. Utile perché contrappone due scuole: Kaldor-Thirlwall per i quali il vincolo della bilancia dei pagamenti è l'ostacolo principale alla crescita, l'altra (l'MMT) secondo cui con una moneta sovrana, oplà, il problema scompare.

A reply to Wray - Part 1

 “The fact that individual countries no longer have their own currencies and central banks will put new constraints on their ability to run independent fiscal policies. … But more disturbing still is the notion that with a common currency the ‘balance or payments problem’ is eliminated and therefore that individual countries are relieved of the need to pay for their imports with exports. Quite the reverse: the existence or a common currency makes a country more directly dependent on its ability to sell exports and import substitutes than it was before…”. Godley 1991

There are two aspects of the discussion that has taken place in the last weeks (here, here, here, here). The first mainly concerns my first post and regards whether monetary sovereignty is a condition both necessary and sufficient for any country to pursue development and full employment policies; the second concerns the Eurozone (EZ) crisis and was the subject of my second post. Wray mainly focuses on the second issue, and I will do the same. In part 1 of my reply I will, however, briefly dwell on the first aspect that is anyway preliminary and which will lead us to touch upon the EZ troubles anyway. The two questions we deal with in part 1 will, respectively, be: are balance of payments (BoP) preoccupations irrelevant for countries endowed with full monetary sovereignty? Can a currency union suffer of internal BoP troubles? Part 2 will then be devoted to Wray’s explanation(s) of the EZ crisis.

Born In The U.S.A. – MMT And Monetary Sovereignty

E' giunta questa notizia su FB immagino da Stephanie Kelton per cui mi pare opportuno interrompere ogni polemica per ora ed esprimere tutti un pensiero di solidarietà e affetto per Randy Wray che è una cara e generosa persona.
I suppose it is time to share this sad news. The MMT family has lost someone very special to us, and we are all reeling from it. Randy Wray's wife, Shona Kelly Wray, died yesterday after suffering a brain aneurism. It is time for the MMT community (big tent) to come together and stop bickering over things that matter very little in life. -Stephanie 

Un importante blog ha trasformato un mio commento in un post che solleverà certamente un vespaio essendo assai critico dell'MMT. I miei lettori mi avevano chiesto una opinione. Eccola. Ma questo non significa che dell'MMT sia tutto da buttare, tutt'altro. Liberato dal Beppe Grillismo e dal massimalismo (e da una certa ripetitività ossessiva, aggressività e supponenza) vi sono molti insegnamenti utili, di cui solo in parte ha la paternità invero, che gli economisti eterodossi hanno introiettato andando avanti nella ricerca (chi desidera approfondire veda Lavoie 2011). Grazie Ramanan!

Traduttore in italiano cercansi.

(come atteso su FB c'è un furioso dibattito nel gruppo degli MMT https://www.facebook.com/#!/groups/mmt21/ e c'è chi mi scrive - anche autorevoli colleghi stranieri esperti di moneta - apprezzando di aver gridato "il re è nudo")

by RAMANAN on SUNDAY, 6 MAY 2012 

In my previous post on government defaults and its connection to open economies, I had a comment from Sergio Cesaratto (who is full professor of Economics at the University of Siena (Italy)) which I liked. Since I don’t publish comments, I asked him if I could promote it to a post and he sent me an updated version which looks more like a post. I am publishing it as it is except for some formatting. – Ramanan

Born In The U.S.A. – MMT And Monetary Sovereignty

Sergio Cesaratto

 The absence of a truly European central bank to guarantee the liquidity of the European sovereign debts aggravated (although it not originated) the crisis by letting the sovereign spreads to spiralling upward. As  consequence of the ECB deficient conduct, according to De Grauwe (2011: 8-10) the periphery’s public debts (PD) moved from a low risk to a high risk equilibrium, in his view from a liquidity to a solvability crisis.  This is not totally correct since the original troubles with the European periphery seem solvability, not of just of liquidity, and indeed it emerged when liquidity was abundant and the sovereign spreads low. According to Wray and his MMT fellows this abundance just delayed theredde rationem of the deficient Eurozone (EZ) monetary constitution, so that they attribute an almost exclusive relevance to the renunciation to national sovereign central bank (SCB) as the explanation of the European financial crisis.